Follow the leader?

First of all, may I say thank you to my friend Ewarwoowar, blog entitled 'The Rise and Rise of Tim Lovejoy', for a bit of free publicity recently. I was pleasently surprised to see I have four followers now as a result! To those of you reading, I hope my posts continue to be of interest.

Right, so the dust has settled following last Thursday's local council elections and European Parliament elections, and as expected Labour has taken something of a hammering in the polls. I have to admit, before the election I was unaware of just how many councils the Conservatives controlled, and following Thursday's elections Labour lost control of all the councils that were up for election. Unsurprisingly, speculation has been rife over the weekend of a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown, with ministers having resigned left, right and centre prior to Thursday. When I was packing away my possessions at university on Friday, I stopped for a bit to watch Gordon Brown's news conference, having a funny feeling that something big may have been announced. However, Brown made it clear that he was staying on as Prime Minister to meet the challenges that the government faces. This got me thinking a bit more about his position, and that of the Labour Party, and it made me realise how they truly are - to use a popular phrase - caught between a rock and a hard place.

I see there being two options for Gordon Brown and Labour at this moment in time.
1) Stand by their man and stay united behind Gordon Brown
Labour can do what they're doing (just about!) and stick with Gordon Brown. Yes, there have been questions about his leadership but no-one appears to be standing out within the Cabinet who will step up and be the one to 'wield the knife'. If they go on like this, chances are they will weather the storm and limp through to the next general election, whenever in the next twelve months that may be. The advantage of this option is that they appear united (well, as united as they can) and can credibly argue that they are facing adversity and getting on with the job of running the country, mitigating the effects of the recession and reforming the expenses system while David Cameron bleats on about calling an election at Prime Minister's Questions. The disadvantage is that they are portrayed as being out of touch with the mood of the electorate (which delivered a damning verdict last week), Brown's authority is shown as weakening ever further as discontent in the ranks rumbles on below, and public opinion hardens even further against the Labour government. Thus, the result is electoral defeat for Labour and for Gordon Brown.


2) Launch a leadership challenge and force Brown out
This option may seem attractive for some within the Labour Party right now. Either gather the necessary support (and a candidate) to trigger a leadership challenge, or get close enough that Gordon Brown is persuaded by senior figures in the party to jump rather than be pushed. Once Brown is gone, elect a fresh face who can renew the Party and present themselves to the electorate as someone who can bring about change; would this be David Milliband, 'the Johnson', or another? Who knows.
The advantage here is that Labour can claim it is breaking with the past, and an unpopular leader. Also, the party can unite fully behind its new leader meaning that the government can get on with the job without the distractions provided by discontent and continuous leadership speculation.
On the other side, the disadvantage is that the pressure would be extremely high on the government to call an immediate general election. To change leader twice in one term of Parliament without consulting the public would be pretty much unthinkable. Therefore, a general election would be likely. Portrayed as in disarray and lacking in unity and direction, Labour would almost certainly be defeated at the polls through this route.


In my view, the Labour Party are damned if they do, and damned if they don't. Stick with Brown and they will - barring a Tory implosion - face defeat at the next election. Get rid of him now, and they go into an election in disarray and only bring forward the demise of the Labour government. For what its worth, difficult as it will be for him, I think that Gordon Brown is making the right decision in staying on as PM. If a general election is triggered any time soon, any action on the economy or on reforming MPs expenses will take a backseat to campaigning and this, in my view, is not what we need as a country in a time of economic crisis.
However, it is certainly a tricky situation and one thing is for sure; it will be interesting to see how things develop over the coming weeks. I'll certainly be interested to hear your opinions on the prospects for Gordon Brown and Labour in the near future.